Construction Industry Scenarios - Summer 2016
This replaces the standard forecast, owing to revisions following the 23 June 2016 Referendum.
The CPA would typically publish the main forecast in mid-August, however, the post referendum period following the vote on 23 June 2016 has been marked by a considerable degree of political and economic uncertainty. Given this, data on the pre-Referendum months is all but redundant, whilst lagged dates mean that economic data for the post referendum months will only be drip-fed over the coming months. The CPA has therefore developed a central scenario with higher and lower bounds reflecting the extent of the uncertainty, rather than produce the stats point estimate forecasts.
The CPA’s construction industry scenario go to the end of 2018, prior to the anticipated period in which the UK leaves the EU. At this stage, there is not enough information regarding the timing and impacts of Brexit on the UK economy in general, and the construction sector in particular, to factor this into our scenarios. Because of the uncertainty around the data in the near-term, we expect to produce a similar set of scenarios for the Autumn Forecast 2016.Read More