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The Answer is Written in... The Sun

As the election season starts to get into full swing the thought on everyone's mind is, who will be in Number 10 in May 2015?  Will it be a majority government?  Will the status quo prevail?  Or are we on the verge of a new, historical result that will see a coalition made up of parties that have never held power before?  This uncertainty has created a real buzz around the political circuit with everyone having a different theory on the potential outcome.

To add to all this uncertainty we now find ourselves at a political junction rarely seen in the post war era.  I’m speaking of the movement from a two/three party system (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats) to a multi-party system where smaller emerging parties (e.g., UKIP, the Green Party and the SNP) have a lot more sway over the electorate.

With this air of uncertainty coupled with a new and diverse political environment, organisations and companies needs help to forecast the end results.  The polls can only tell us so much about how people are thinking of voting.  Bookies odds may offer a useful insight.  I would claim, however, that the answer is potentially written in the Sun. 

The table below shows the historical support from the national newspapers for particular political parties in elections since 1979.  Certain newspapers have been staunch supporters of certain political parties over the last eight elections, including the Telegraph and Mail which have consistently supported the Conservatives, and the Mirror which has never swung away from supporting the Labour Party.

However, one newspaper over the last eight elections has consistently supported the party which won the most Parliamentary seats, and predicted the winner every time: The Sun.  Famously on 30 September 2009 The Sun switched allegiance after 12 years with the Labour Party.  Running the headline ‘The Sun HQ is feeling blue’, they wafted blue smoke from their chimney, symbolising the signal sent from the Sistine Chapel when a new pope is appointed.  Will they be able to continue this winning streak in 2015?  We’ll eagerly await their decision and the smoke signal from the Sun HQ, providing an invaluable insight into the next Government.

 

 

By Jonathan Bloom at 20 Nov 2014, 12:24 PM

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